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Entry  Fri Dec 3 09:31:40 2021, Radhika, DailyProgress, Cryo vacuum chamber, Transitioning MS cooldown fitting to MCMC scheme MS.stanstan_blackcoat_fit.pdf
    Reply  Sun Dec 5 17:33:50 2021, rana, DailyProgress, Cryo vacuum chamber, Transitioning MS cooldown fitting to MCMC scheme 
Message ID: 2699     Entry time: Sun Dec 5 17:33:50 2021     In reply to: 2698
Author: rana 
Type: DailyProgress 
Category: Cryo vacuum chamber 
Subject: Transitioning MS cooldown fitting to MCMC scheme 

thats looking good

You should try to use either the corner or getdist packages to plot the 'corner' plots commonly used when showing correlated posteriors (cf. https://emcee.readthedocs.io/en/v2.2.1/user/line/) so that we can see what's up with the other uncertainties

Quote:

This week I have been working towards a Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach for fitting Megastat cooldown data and obtaining estimates on various emissivity values. I started with a simple model, only simulating the radiative cooling from the inner shield to the test mass. I supply the test mass and inner shield temperature data, and the emissivity of Aquadag (coating both the TM and inner surface of IS) as the only fit parameter. I am using Stan for the modeling, and Attachment 1 is a copy of my stan model.

The results of the simple model are in Attachment 2. The emissivity of Aquadag is estimated as a gaussian centered around 0.7. I am still determining whether this result is "real", or if the simulation is simply returning my prior. I will look into this more before adding complexity to the model.

 

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