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The moral of the story that I'm getting from this plot: something funny is going on.
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Yup, something funny was going on. Nic's MM code that I used, "a la mode", calls for the focal length of the optics, whereas the code that I wrote and used for ages called for the radius of curvature. f = R/2. Fixing that factor of 2 I get something more like:

This is obviously much better, in that the beam profile goes through (within some error) both of the measured sets of points - the MC waist measured in May 2010, and after the MMT measured yesterday.
So, what does it all mean? That I'm not sure of yet. |